National Program for Stability and Development (First 100 Days)

Introduction: After the success of the glorious Sudanese revolution is complete, the next government will face serious economic difficulties and a very complex economic distortion. The most important of these challenges are:
1- The lack of reasonable cover of hard currency to suffice for the value of imports, and it is expected that the volume of external monetary reserves available to the government, guarantees financial cover for imports for only two weeks at the maximum Estimate.
2- A high and accelerated rate of inflation on all goods and services, and the inflation rate exceeded the 65% barrier last year.
3- A weak growth rate and contraction of the economy in 2019 and 2020. The growth rate in 2019 was estimated at  -2%.
4- The lack of effectiveness of monetary policies as a result of the government's policy of drying up liquidity outside the banking sector by setting a ceiling for withdrawals of depositors in different banks.

 In general, the government will inherit an empty treasury, unbridled inflation and a relatively ineffectual monetary policy, as well as the shrinking productivity of vital sectors and the country's entry into the cycle of economic stagnation. We expect that the geopolitical climate in the region has not been able to help the nascent government by providing immediate support to the state budget. Sudan will also not be able to obtain support from international, regional and Arab financial institutions (Sudan's debt to multilateral global and regional banks is about 13 percent of the total debt. In light of the bad political situation of the file of arrears and the origin of foreign debt, which in 2015 amounted to about 50 billion U.S. dollars.

Characteristics of the first phase of economic stability: International development institutions and UN organizations outline technical, economical and social policies for the post-revolution period and at the end of wars and conflicts, these policies depend mainly on the following concepts:
* The public that carried out the Intifada (revolution) expects real, tangible and immediate change at the end of the previous regime, and to achieve stability and security, all transitional governments must work to achieve a major change in the situation of Economic and people's lives, this in turn calms the rebels and gives the government time to develop a medium-term economic program.
* Work on the development and implementation of a media policy that helps to reflect the pre-revolutionary economic situation clearly and transparently and put it in a real comparison with the nascent economic change. The media policy should strengthen the relationship between all Sudanese and focus on the agreed topics of all regions and races.
* Identifying civil government institutions that have not been weakened by years of empowerment and exclusion of those opposed to the regime, and relying on them to implement some key government services.
* Bringing together the Sudanese private sector and enlightening it with obstacles and methods of solutions offered by the government and the role assigned to the private sector in the coming days.
* Developing the first building blocks of a national program for stability, development and reconstruction aimed at preparing the economic, civil and administrative situation of Sudan. The policies adopted in the first 100 days should be the building block and the beginning of the implementation of the proposed national program.

The focus of the first 100-day policy: The measures to be implemented in the first 100 days aim to achieve stability and economic balance for all macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, cash supply and monetary policy, Interim growth rate, unemployment rate.... Etc. These procedures can be detailed in ten key areas as follows:

The first axis: is to develop a mechanism to attract the returns, investments and savings of Sudanese working abroad, estimated at 4 million Sudanese. The mechanism relies mainly on a government commitment to include all deposits in hard currency. On an operational point of view, Sudanese banks open hard currency accounts for expatriates in various countries and cooperate with Sudan's embassies abroad. According to previous experiences of some countries, bank employees can be sent periodically and regularly to open current accounts and collect deposits using accounts of various Sudanese embassies. Applicants can use their accounts for all purposes, investment or to transfer different family expenses to parents and relatives in Sudan. Ethiopia has made similar actions after the war with Eritrea. This axis is a key element in supporting the policies of economic stability, because of the difficulty of obtaining other sources, given the current geopolitical intersections of Sudan and the arrears and debts of Sudan to the Countries of the Paris Club and international and regional institutions, to obtain support to provide reasonable cover of external monetary reserves. Binna Sudan Party estimates the initial need for budget support in the range of $3 billion, which will stabilize the exchange rate and significantly push the production process to provide hard currency for the different import of production inputs.

The second axis: the government should liberalize the exchange rate of the Sudanese pound due to the difficulty of obtaining positive results from the policies of setting the exchange rate because there is no civil service to follow up on the measures of Exchange rate transactions in the banking and banking sectors, which will lead to the creation of parallel markets for currencies. The policy of maintaining the float of the pound in the short term will create high competitiveness for domestic products in the global commodity markets and reduce the volume of import demand for it’s higher prices in hard currencies compared to local currency. The float policy will outweigh the measures to attract the returns of overseas businesses as indicated in the first axis.

The third axis: As noted, a media policy should be developed that reflects the current economic situation in a transparent manner for citizens and in a simplified and understandable language, with a view to increase the patience of the people for the near-term prospects on The nascent government that is making its way into a very complex situation. The focus should be on a media discourse outlining the objectives of the proposed economic policies to convince the public that the decisions adopted are the best way to do so in the current situation.

The fourth axis: the establishment of an immediate mechanism for the so-called global basic income, under which a known monetary value is paid to each citizen and paid on the basis of the national number of each Sudanese citizen. The budget required is to be redirected from local currency savings from the reduction in government spending previously directed at security, defence and the federal system. The government should improve its statistical and cognitive capabilities (Axis 9) to study the sustainability of this mechanism after the first 100 days and try to channel this support to the poorest or the areas that have suffered from wars and conflicts. It is important that the accompanying media policy be accompanied by a detailed explanation of the size of the savings and how they are distributed.

The fifth axis: the allocation of all assets owned by some government institutions whose services do not actually contribute to the production process, or those that the private sector can provide the same service more effective which reduces the relative cost of taxpayers. These assets include buildings, real estate, cars, and small state-owned enterprises, which represent the biggest distortions in the Sudanese economic body, such as pharmacies, malls and groceries.

The sixth axis: to activate a disciplined monetary and fiscal policy to curb inflation by increasing bank profit rates, halting cash dumping and stabilizing the money supply rates. The policy also aims to restore depositors' confidence in banks by ensuring full local currency deposits during the transitional period. It also requires the elimination of indiscriminate collection of fees, taxes and services and the consolidation of payment and supply receipts to a single account at The Bank of Sudan. As a result of the sensitivity and intersections of this policy with other economic measures, the implementation of this policy requires significant Sudanese technical human resources attracted from international and regional financial institutions. In particular, sudanese working in the International Monetary Fund, the African Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank and the Arab Monetary Fund because of the practical and technical expertise associated with the monetary economy of these Institutions.

The seventh axis: Maintaining support for bread, fuel and sugar for the poorest (the government can rely in the transitional period on supporting the population of some regions and states affected by war and conflict. And also those whose population is suffering from extreme poverty) until the economy recovers and macroeconomic indicators stabilize from inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate, positive rate of  Gross domestic product (GDP) growth and increase the productivity of key sectors.

The eighth axis: the immediate start of talks to exempt Sudan from foreign debt in accordance with the initiative of exempting the most indebted countries, and reaching the decision point. The efforts of the relevant ministries (foreign, financial and international cooperation) must be available to achieve this great goal. The talks have been disrupted in the past by the regime's foreign relations, namely terrorism files and the arrest warrant issued to the head of state by the International Criminal Court. The success of this file will open the doors of concessional financing from international institutions and various funding organizations, as well as support from some Western countries active in helping countries that are vulnerable. (Britain, Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and the European Union).

The ninth axis: Immediately start building the statistical capacity of the Central Bureau of Statistics, because of the importance of the presence of accurate statistical information that can be relied upon in the estimation of some indicators or Estimates to create a reliable knowledge framework in estimating and building the policies of the National Stability and Development Program.

The tenth axis: The establishment of a central body for tenders and government contracts to regulate and control the tender procedures and the establishment of contracts for federal and state government purchases and works, similar to the history of Sudan To achieve the assets of governance, transparency and optimal allocation of resources. Sudan is currently suffering from a lot of absurdity in terms of tenders, government procurement and contracts. The lack of a solid legal ground governing government tenders in order to obtain the best prices and contracts and the best purchases following the theoretical and technical basis of the procedures for submitting, evaluating and establishing tenders, contributed greatly in the aforementioned imbalance. Currently, there is a modest department in one of the ministries entrusted with the ratification of tenders and purchases of government. However, the actual practice and commitment of government agencies to the directives of this administration are sham and unfulfilled.

December 2018